digital axle

How a Rumor Turns into a Report: The $99 iPhone @ Wal-Mart

Web rumor becomes widely reported "truth" - I'm sure it's happened many times before, but VentureBeat did a good job of peeling back the layers on the latest example: the $99 Wal-Mart iPhone.

Here's how it began: a blog called Boy Genius Report got a tip in early December that the iPhone would be sold at Wal-Mart before the end of the year, and that the price might be $99 for a 4GB version, which is less capacity than Apple's current options.

Other blogs picked up the rumor, and some - oops! - forgot to mention that it was just a tip: a rumor, unconfirmed by any sort of trustworthy figure from either Apple or Wal-Mart. Still, blogs will be blogs, and reporting on rumors is just part of the fun. The real gaff came when "mainstream media" (first, the San Jose Mercury News, but then Bloomberg, Reuters, NYT, Yahoo News and other fun pals) started telling people it was true.

How did that happen? Well the Mercury News said that department manager of the cell phone department at a random Walmart told them she heard from an AT&T representative that her store would in fact be getting a 4GB version two days before Christmas. See where it starts getting sketchy? Like a game of telephone...

And Apple analysts jumped in on the rumor, eager to brag about their knowledge of Apple's business model. “A $99, Apple-branded cell phone is inevitable,” said a Kaufman Brothers analyst. Yes, inevitable. Except it's not, apparently. Wal-Mart shoppers will pay a whole $2 less for the same old models. Oh wait, except not really - it's cheaper at Best Buy.

Even on Dec. 9, when blogs started telling people that the rumor was not true, mainstream media was still insisting it was.

The bright side to this whole ordeal? (Besides mainstream media feeling a small blush in its cheeks for being too literal and then falling a step behind news blogs, of course.) There won't be any stampedes at Wal-Mart on the day of the iPhone's big debut.

Tracking Returns on Blog Outreach: A Lesson in Futility?

A comment from "Social Media for the Masses" (Adotas):

It’s great to see bloggers (like yourself) qualify the effects of social media on the marketing process. I would love to see some journalists document real quantifiable measurements of the return on investment in social media optimization. That evidence would be truly convincing when selling the service to clients.

Yes, when? The "four equally valuable" parts to achieving ROI on investment from blog outreach efforts: consumer generated content, third party validation, social media, and search results. Tracking search results? Easy cheesy. Finding UGC and re-using it for marketing purposes or to drive more traffic? Again, not a problem.

But using the bloggers’ validation (i.e., their unique content discussing the brand) to spread word across social media outlets and platforms is not only tricky to do but seems, to me, pretty impossible to track. The best part about so-called influencers is that they move in mysterious ways. And the ones they apparently influence are even more confusing to keep track of. So how do you measure the effect of this tactic?

Other than asking bloggers for their own metrics, finding overlap in your audience, or conducting some sort of survey, I don't see a way. That's the thing about word-of-mouth: It runs fast as hell, but not in one direction - so good luck trying to figure out where it came from or where it's going.

2009 Ad Spend to Fall 10%, but Web's Still a Winner

The economy is sucky, that's for sure. And domestic ad spend is projected to go down 10% next year, according to Barclays Capital - which gave a more moderate estimate of 5.5% just two months ago. A drop in local ad spend (12.2%) is supposed to lead the decline, writes All Things Digital.

But internet ad spend will still be splashing in the deep end of the ad pool: spending in the sector is expected to go up 6.1%, Barclays said. Digital experts at the IPG Emerging Media Lab agreed - see Mediapost's coverage for ideas on how tight-wadded marketers seeking accountability are going to fuel online growth.

Keep in mind, though, that internet advertising (display, search, lead generation, etc.) should account for just 10% of all ad spending next year.

Still, by 2010, spending in this minority segment will be up 12%...and who knows where the rest will be?

"Trusted" Information Sources

Via Groundswell's 2008 survey of 5,000 people:

Direct, Digital a Wise Choice for Struggling Big 3 Automakers

Hey, guess what - the automobile industry isn't doing so hot. I never used to pay much attention to it, but ever since I traded in* my 2005 fake-Vespa scooter for an '87 BMW coupe I started realizing how important a car can be to a person's - okay, an American's - life. It takes you places, and not in the figurative sense, which on a daily basis is way more important than those other things that bring you to your Dreams, you know?

But now the all-powerful American car industry is no longer so big and beefy. In November, General Motors' total vehicle sales dropped 41%, Chrysler's were down 47.1% and Ford's were down 30.5%, according to Motor Intelligence. Year-to-date, the declines are 21.9%, 27.7% and 19.5%, respectively.

Eating humble pie, the Big Three are going down on their knees to ask Congress for $34 billion in financial assistance to keep them from going bankrupt. Faced with the prospect of seeing one or all of them go belly up, many advertising and marketing firms whose business is based on the auto industry is - to be blunt - freaking out, man.

Chrysler's agency, Omnicom BBDO, just cut 145 jobs to account for loss of client activity; Mullen Agency, which has an office in Detroit, laid off 5% of its work force; and Campbell-Ewald, in Warren, MI, also let some people go, reports DM News.

But direct marketers - and digital marketers - are having a field day. “Throughout this year, we've been look­ing at shifting our advertising efforts to include online, because digital is a little bit more direct, and we can measure it more,” revealed Carrie McElwee, a Chrysler spokesperson.

Once again, the tables turn.

BT Dubs, we always heart Honda, and here's why.

*Who am I kidding? I would never trade in Scooter Libby. She's still alive and well, bravely exploring the streets of Oakland, CA.

The Party's Over

Is the bubble going bloopity burst again? Siicon Valley is certainly not the place to be raging your face off these days. "In 2001, we were the epicenter, we were the cause," Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, told InformationWeek. "Now it's a world-wide recession event."

Indeed, and the Valley is finally getting hit. Santa Clara county's unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in October from 6.5% in September - above the national level (6.5%), but still well below California's level of 8.2%.

I dare you to find a company that hasn't been bitten by the recession bug. Tesla. Sun. LinkedIn. Yahoo. Even The Goog. The ranks of unemployed are rising as steadily as an Amish barn.

And they're not just cutting costs. That's just half the battle, you know. It's time to increase revenue: Google's putting ads all over the place, and startups that had seemingly no need for that little thing called money are suddenly looking to Q1 for some cash. Twitter, for example, has plans to scale out its revenue model - I mean, when it finds one - and turn out a product rather than just survive on ads or sponsorships, CNET tell us.

I wish you luck, guys. Business models are a dime a dozen, but try getting one to work sometime. Maybe ask your own model, Google, for ideas. After all, YouTube worked out so well.

A Manic Cyber Monday

Black Friday was a glimmer of hope for the retail industry - though Seeking Alpha warns us, "Don't get too cocky." Not yet, kiddo.

It was e-commerce - and consumer electronics - that were the real winners of the day, as traffic to eBay, Amazon, and PriceGrabber.com all up from that of last year's Black Friday and people snapped up the iPod Touch, GPS systems, and Nintendo Wii. I guess people would rather sleep in, click-to-buy, and wait for USPS than get trampled at Wal-Mart. (Or get turned away at Walmart.com. And Nordstrom, and Sears, and Bon-Ton, and Hewlett-Packard, and Barnes and Noble.)

Really? Site crashes? Is demand really so high that it would send retail giants' server crashing down like the Dow? Or were they sadly unprepared? What about Cyber Monday, guys? Some 84.6 million consumers said they planned to shop online from home or at work, according to a Shop.org survey conducted by BIGresearch. Were you ready for it?

This clever PPC marketer was:

Apparently both Bloomingdales.com and JCrew.com fell victim to tragic IT issues yesterday, and Bonobos.com bid on the branded terms, using the headline “Big Retailers Site Down?” and mentioned that it carries only men’s clothing. Hmm, Bloomies or Bonobos? Which shall I choose. Maybe the one that works?