digital axle

Money for nothing and...

Gearing up to spend those big bucks on television advertising? Sure, TV's doing just fine. Just look at the nearly one hundred million votes they got on American Idol. Obviously people are watching.

Except when they aren't. Within 2 years, nearly one out of five television ads will be skipped due to DVR usage. And American Idol? 3.3 million people watched this season on a DVR. That sounds to us like 3.3 million people skipping ads.

Diminishing returns, for sure. The good news? TV advertising is about to get cheaper. The prediction is that CPMs will start to come down after this year. But of course, you get what you pay for. And those eyeballs are fewer every day. Time to turn on the ol' ROI calculator and figure out what's next.

Here's one idea: Ad Age has some tips for effective viral videos. Get your 10,000,000 views online instead, like this T-mobile video has done since January. And just think of all the fun metrics you get when your advertising is online.

Bing Bang Boom: MSFT Goes All Out in New Ad Campaigns

What's up with the weirdo-nasty TV spots, Microsoft? First you confused me with Jerry and Bill, now you're telling me that "artists" can be PC users, too? I'm talking about the ads where the "picky" consumer is in the market for a new laptop and tries to find a Mac in their price range - and can't. So they then proceed to find a PC that meets all of their criteria, for half the price - and Microsoft is so excited by their comparison shopping that they pay for it. (Read Apple's response, via Roughly Drafted.)

Okay, fine. Try to convince me that a professional video editor is going to do just fine running software on Windows, I might believe you, because I don't know better. But now try to convince me that the way I'm searching on the internet is totally wrong? What a bone to pick, guys. Too bad most people (65%) are pretty much satisfied with their search experience, or rather, with their Google experience. How do you tell someone that they're going about it all wrong? How about with a costly ad campaign?

That's right, I'm talking about Bing, MFST's new search engine that is actually performing fairly well, according to early comScore data. And I'll hand it to them, the ad where people are babbling search terms is pretty good - at some point we all find ourselves thinking down a completely different line than we'd planned, thanks to search. But isn't that kind of fun, in a Tim Leary kind of way?

Here's the latest ad, this one for Internet Explorer 8. But oh, isn't that Dean Cain? My favorite alum, and of the Glenn Nelson volleyball era to boot. (Watch for the guy in the back with the tree. I like him best.)

This Virtual Social Life

Cartoon via this blog, but created by Oliver Widder, a rather dapper Hamburg-ian.

Here's some filler text to enjoy while you ponder the meaning of "follow."

April marked the fourth consecutive month that Facebook ranked first for its number of unique visitors and time spent - InformationWeek, citing Nielsen data.

Time spent? How much time, exactly?

Um, 13.9 billion minutes. Up from 1.7 billion minutes. Now, I don't have the wherewithal to locate my nearest digital calculator, so I'll just believe the article when it tells me that's an increase of 700%.

SEVEN HUNDRED PERCENT, kids.

It looks cool when you write it in all caps, and it also is more frightening. It means that we are spending exponential more time in these little virtual bubbles, sending cryptic updates, fake-spying on high school acquaintances. (It's not stalking if there's no restraining order.)

What I find interesting is that Facebook is overtaking MySpace and yet it caters to a slightly older demographic. Translation: older people are learning how to "hang out" online, too. Now watch: the teenagers take advantage of our Twitter-Facebook obsession to get offline and do something surprising and perhaps wonderful, while our eyes remain glued to our virtual networks.

Facebook vs. Twitter? For Gen Y, No Contest.

Brands and marketers who got all excited about using Twitter as a tool for reaching that 18-24 demographic may be sorely disappointed by a recent study that shows just 29% of young'uns on Twitter follow companies; most are interested in following their friends, and celebrities. (In that order, thank god.)

That is, if they're even on Twitter. Just 2 in 10 in that age group use it, compared to 9.9 out of 10 that have profiles on social networks, according to the Participatory Media Network study. Wait, 0.1 of a person? Does that mean there's three-quarters of a femur out there, floating around, without a requisite 'casual sexy' profile picture, eclectic-yet-mainstream musical tastes, and 'smart' literary quote with which to identify itself to its 700 friends? God forbid.

Michael Della Penna of PMN called it a "glass half full" scenario. "Clearly we're only touching the surface of its potential as a marketing vehicle," he says.  "It's clear that Gen Y has an appetite for social networking, but still hasn't fully embraced micro-blogging. There is a tremendous opportunity now for marketers to develop strategies to get this important group active on Twitter too."

Yes, clearly. Let's keep telling ourselves that. And let's also keep them as two separate entities, shall we? Because that doesn't make sense - integrating the less popular medium into the one that the group is already gaga over. Ga. ga.

By the way - funny that a search for "facebook twitter," or vice versa, brings up Twitter's Facebook page well before Facebook's Twitter account. Did that just make you dizzy?

Hey Starbucks, what's up? Wanna chat? JKLOL!

The New York Times tells us today that Starbucks is launching a major social media blitz to tie in with their latest advertising campaign. Among other things, a contest to be the first to post a photo of new ad posters on Twitter.

They already have large followings on Facebook (1.5 million fans) and Twitter (183,000 followers) and this campaign is sure to get them more. So will social media get people to drink more coffee? Or buy more cars?

No one knows yet how to measure the ROI on social media, yet we all secretly believe it makes a difference. These grand experiments are laying the foundation for the future if nothing else.

Relationships are supposed to be the cornerstones to success on the social web. So what does this mean for brands? We find ourselves wondering how Starbucks (or any other brand) plans to have a personal relationship with millions of people. What's the point of social media if not to be social? Don't get us wrong, we are all for expanding into the social web. In fact, we think it is necessary and only a matter of time until all aspects of the web are social.

And yet, we find ourselves wondering where it's headed. Will social media continue to be part of advertising? Residing within the marketing department? Or is it something else, like, say, how a company does business everyday, up there with answering the phone. Because carrying on a conversation is what customer service representatives do. Not necessarily marketers.

As for Starbucks? We don't make friends with our coffee. We drink coffee with our friends. So we're going to grab a latte, sit down at the keyboard, and check in on Facebook. Maybe we'll tell our friends how great this coffee is.

App-ver-what? Mobile Advertising Comes of Age

Ad Age tells us that mobile advertising may finally be coming into its own. People can't seem to get enough applications for their smart phones, and even welcome branded apps. Assuming the apps don't suck, that is.

Sounds easy! Of course, when you realize that the average user installs 20-40 apps on his phone, and there are tens of thousands of applications out there, you realize that the real challenge is getting those eyeballs in the first place.

OK, so it's not quite so simple. Nonetheless, the opportunities are there -- and only getting better. Branded apps are brilliant when executed well. They take some serious development savvy and a good push to get them found by users. There is also a second option: in-application advertising. Piggy-back on someone else's awesome app and show off your product inside.

Want inspiration? Check out the Ad Age article for some examples.
Don't believe this is the next great thing? Analysts do. Maybe time for a little more research.

Look Mom, No Hands: Interactive Marketing Flies High

Isn't this a pretty chart? Thanks, Forrester (via Mediapost).

For the sake of brevity, I'll give you the good news first: Interactive marketing spending will hit $25.6 billion this year, a 11% increase from the $23.1 billion of 2008. 

The figure includes search, email, social media, and mobile marketing fund-age. Yes, that is a real word - at least according to legendary linguist Pauly Shore.

And now, the better news: spending is expected to more than double to nearly $55 billion by 2014.

B2B Marketing Pubs Cater to Panicky Industry

Browsing the feeds from publications like Ad Age, PR Week, ClickZ, and DM News, I can't help but wonder: where are the glorious stories of yesteryear? Articles about incredible (and expensive) ad campaigns, eager PR folk writing the new, can't-fail rules of the industry, and stories of VCs showering young, blushing startups with pretty piles of cash.

Now what do we get? Facebook's credit lines can't keep up with its incredible user growth, unspectacular campaigns abound, newspapers are dying, and even those we thought were untouchable are laying off workers left and right. (Though apparently, there's some hope, as courageous VCs sniff out opportunity in a crumbled market.)

But one of the most noticeable changes is that B2B pubs are starting to get seriously pragmatic on us. "7 Tips for Marketing During a Recession." "Email Marketing on a Budget." And of course the infamous "How-Tos" for social media marketing, where they tell you that you can get 1,000 new customers via Twitter: just equip a few baby-interns (cost: $0) with TwitterFon apps (cost: $0) and some targeted adspeak (cost: $0).

What they don't tell you is you're going to need someone to QA all that jazz. The cost of the wrong message going out to those potential customers? Infinite. Who is going to make sure they stay consistent with the strategy and message? And who is going to literally sit down and fix the mistakes that are inevitably going to be made? Finally, how do you make up for the time lost with "experimentation" that you had to scrap not one month in, but several, because it takes time to find out what works?

Don't get us wrong: We heart social media. We just don't think it's the solution to slashed budgets during a recession.

Get your priorities crooked

YSMV: Your skepticism may vary.

Traditional advertising and social media are getting cozier by the day. So cozy that you might want to call them “friends with benefits.” That guy you overheard talking about his favorite yogurt? That woman blogging and twittering about her awesome new car? Maybe not quite so unbiased – since they got that yogurt and that car for free. Say what you will, getting something for nothing makes a difference. Hence, the benefits.

Solicited word-of-mouth is nothing new; BzzAgent has been around a while, sending people out in the world to comment, share and, well, generate buzz. Now, Ford Fiesta is giving away cars to agents. Hey, if I had a new car for 6 months, I would probably like it too. Ah, that new car smell. Nothing quite like it.

Our response? It's time to embrace your inner skeptic. The message is only as valuable as you allow it to be. These days, everyone has something to share, and it’s not all as innocent as it might seem.  As Pete Cashmore wrote in his post "Can Social Media Make Us Buy More Cars?": “In the era of user-generated content, being an informed and skeptical consumer of media is as important as being a skilled creator.” And for every blogger, vlogger, or twitterer commenting on a product, there are ten consumers who need to raise that eyebrow just a little higher.

Of course the real question is: will it work? How skeptical are people these days? Keep watching Ford Fiesta and maybe we'll find out.

Will the Axle Take Home the Grease?

Digital Axle could take home the prize in the optimization competition at the Ad-Tech Awards tonight for its work on NorcalHonda.com.  Just in case we don't win, we're telling you now that we are a finalist.  More later.

Convergence! It's here. No not that kind. The other kind

For the longest time, digital agencies have done everything they can to convince the world that no, no, no ...they only do digital. Why?  Two words: Wall Street.

Remember when Digitas went public?  They (brilliantly) positioned themselves to the dot com rabblery  as "Digital Gone Wild" when, in fact, at the time, more than 60% of their revenue came from offline sources like, say, junk mail.  Did you ever hear Tom Bedecarre of AKQA bragging on his print campaigns for Visa?  Not likely.  For just about ever, Wall Street has given digital agencies a much higher multiple on income than it has given the IPG's and Omnicom's of the world.  So even if the business was there, Digital CEOs underplayed their offline revenue because nothing good could come from it.

But now the advent of online video as a content and ad form may be the catalyst changing all that.  Here in Adweek the formerly high minded digerati of Razorfish (incidentally owned by MSFT of all companies) is taking credit for a campaign in ...gasp... broadcast video.

We've thought this would happen forever.  The digital agencies are in the best position to win these clients over the long haul.  Why? EZ. They understand and appreciate data -- something the traditonal agency world has yet to fully wrap its head around.  So, in some respects the high multiples are justified as the Razorfish's of the world may start to gobble up broadcast budgets and position themelves as the center of the marketing infrastructure.  Their future growth curve looks way brighter.

Search 3.0: The Hive Mind is Providing the Answers.

Facebook and Twitter are now driving a significant amount of traffic to web sites. Enough to make Google and Yahoo just a teeny bit nervous. Heck some sites are seeing more traffic from Facebook than from Google. Google and Facebook are still complementary, but that may be shifting. We call this shift "Search 3.0."

Peter Hershberg broke down Search 3.0 in AdAge recently, defining three levels of social connections: personal/real-life, shared interest (such as those you follow on Twitter), and shared experience (an Amazon or eBags reviewer). People are using these connections to assess the value of their search results. A straight Google search just doesn't cut it when you can ask your friends, their friends, a few professionals you respect and maybe someone who has tried the product. All in one easy inquiry into the hive mind.(Ok, maybe not all queries are best suited for this kind of search.)

On top of that, people can't seem to stay away from social networks (time spent is up 93%). Which means that their social connectivity is growing and strengthening. There is a new kind of relevance: personal -- defined by your personal network. So you, dear marketer, are going to have to approach things just a little differently.

We also learned that people filter content in a way that Google just can't. A recent study showed that 25% of posts through the social bookmarking site Delicious have yet to be indexed by search engines. And the tags are 93% relevant. That is high value: relevant AND timely. No waiting for spiders to catch up.

What does this mean for you? Social media is critical, like it or not. Twitter or something like it won't go away (as much as you might want it to). And Search as we know it has changed. Nervous yet? It's time to start experimenting. And make a few mistakes while you're at it -- the risk-taking window is wide-open.

John Freese's Campaign: Lame PR Stunt? or Brilliant Marketing Move?

This is just too juicy to pass up.

Journeyman session drummer Josh Freese:

“Six months ago, my pal says to me -- he's sitting at his desk and he goes, we were laughing about how many records I sold last week or the week before ... ‘last week you sold one, and the week before you sold two, and the week before you sold none, and the week before one.’ And I was like, ‘OK, I get it.... Maybe I should call those people and personally thank them.’ And we started laughing. It was like, ‘Yeah, maybe you should offer a free drum lesson.’ I was like, ‘Well, maybe I should just take them to lunch.’ And we started laughing about that -- it really came up that easily. And I was like, ‘Wow, this could be a great idea.’"

So he did it. He sold the album on iTunes for $7, and the double DVD set and download for $15. But then it got interesting.

• For $50, 25 fans could get the album and a five-minute “thank-you” call from Freese, during which they can talk about whatever they want.
• $250 would buy 15 people the music, a signed drumhead, a T-shirt and lunch with Freese at P.F. Chang’s or The Cheesecake Factory.
• And $1,000? The music, a T-shirt and a signed cymbal, drum head and Drumsticks. But also this (via the website): “Josh washes your car OR does your laundry....or you can wash his car. Have dinner with Josh aboard the ‘Queen Mary’ in Long Beach, CA. Get drunk and cut each other's hair in the parking lot of the Long Beach courthouse (filmed and posted on youtube of course)”
• I'm not even going to tell you what $10,000 would get you.

Freese has since taken down the promotion from the website, but says PR stunt aside, he'll totally make good on any of the high-end offers, should he actually get them.

So what's the moral of the story? Be ridiculous. Don't worry about the lawyers, don't worry about pissing people off. When ideas come out of conversations with your friends that leave you both laughing your ass off on the floor, not knowing what hit you, go ahead and do them. (Unless it's a stupid April's Fools joke, of course, and then do it, but not on April 1. That's for amateurs.)

The result will certainly surprise -- you and everyone else.

Got your degree? Congrats, everything you learned is obsolete.

Given how quickly social media tools change, we are marveling at the fact that a UK school is now offering a degree program in social media. For a mere $5700, you can learn how to use Facebook,Twitter and more. You will even learn how to write a blog or create a podcast. We do have to give credit where credit is due: at least the university is making money off of social media. The social media companies certainly aren't.

Now if this were a degree in Social Media Marketing, or crowd-sourced product development, we would be all for it. After all, real jobs exist that require those skills. Unfortunately, this course seems more like something designed to give you basic competence in the world. Sort of like learning how to use e-mail.

So what do we have? Coursework that teaches you how to use tools that are easily self-taught, based on technologies that will evolve and may be obsolete by the time you graduate. OK. Good luck with that!

You can only entertain all of the people some of the time.

These days, you can’t read anything without coming across a mention of Twitter. If only Twitter could monetize word-of-mouth they’d be IPO-worthy today. And yet, there you are, a marketer, shaking in your boots because you have no idea how to start with all of this.

Oh, you know there is plenty of advice out there. You’re no fool. You’ve been reading blogs. You have googled expert tips. You even signed up for a Twitter account (@cluelessnewbie) a month or two ago. But every time you see that “What are you doing?” you are paralyzed. Why would anyone care what you had for lunch today? And are you actually interesting enough for people to follow you? How self-obsessed do you have to be to constantly want to say what you are doing? Is Twitter populated with narcissists?

And then, you read an article like this one about the different types of Twitter personalities and you get even more anxious. There are styles? Some of them undesirable? I don’t want to annoy people!

Don’t worry. Reframe the question. Instead of answering “What are you doing,” answer this: “What do you find interesting today?” If you found it interesting, someone else probably will too.

Still worried about narcissism? Think about this gem we heard at an excellent panel (Is Aristotle on Twitter?) at the SXSW conference: if someone complains about something you tweet, THAT person is the narcissist for having assumed it was intended for him.

To misquote President Lincoln: You can entertain some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not entertain all of the people all of the time.

See? No worries. Go ahead: Step into the Twitter stream. It’ll be OK.

And if it brings you any comfort – everyone else goes through the same process. (See the 5 stages of Twitter acceptance.)

#overload

The SXSW Interactive conference brought together thousands of people who love technology so much that they were willing to spend a weekend and then some in Texas to talk about it. (OK, they also love the parties and the social scene that go along with it, but still, these are serious technophiles.)

And how do all of those people want to communicate with each other? Twitter, of course. So, great idea, we use the hashtag #sxsw so anyone can search for related tweets. Only one small problem. In the time it took to write this paragraph, during the interactive conference there would have been hundreds of tweets.

Since interactive is over, and it’s now the music & film conferences, many of the hard-core twitterers are gone. (Just 40 results since typing the #sxsw hashtag above.) Nonetheless, the Twitter fire hose is spewing at a pace faster than most can manage. (44 results now)

Who can keep up with this? Absolutely no one. And now we have the challenge: scalability of social media. (50 results) How do we avoid #overload FAIL? (57 results) The magic word? “Filtering.” Not that the perfect filtering solutions exist yet. But they will.

For example, check out the new Facebook redesign. (79 results) You might not like it right now (like so many vocal others), but did you know that you can create a group of just the people you want to hear about it? And, you can make that group the default for your own news feed. (82 results)

Now that’s useful. (92 results. Have you caught up yet? Need to filter those tweets?)

Let's Hear From the Other Side, Shall We?

Here at Digital Axle, we like to keep things fair. This means a lot of things: no pushing or shoving in the kitchen, lots of leg space in our conference room for the extra tall people, the right to use or not-use-and-openly-despise Twitter, and early exit for all on Friday afternoons. Provided you are not a lowly minion, of course.

For you, dear blog reader, it means we want to make sure you hear the other side of the internet advertising story. We mostly bombard you with uplifting news about how online ad revenues are growing faster than a Jersey tomato in summer, surpassing other mediums because of its broad (yet targeted!) reach and superior ability to measure ROI. We post eMarketer charts every month whose long red rectangles show the bright future of the industry and its projected revenues.

But not everyone thinks like us. Read this post by Eric Clemons of the Wharton School, "Why Advertising is Failing on the Internet." If nothing else, it will get you thinking about the future -- in which we may or may not be wearing shades.

What Agencies Will Pay for a Shot at Ad Fame

Whoops, didn't mean to do THAT, said the dude from One Show --one of the premier awards shows for advertisements-- when he slipped and accidentally emailed the spreadsheet that listed all of the entries (and how much they paid) for the 2009 awards to a handful of agency execs.

Too late, it's out, and Ad Age reports that apparently, even in tough times, agencies are willing to shell out quite a bit for a chance at recognition and industry fame. Total # of entries, excluding interactive & design? 9,795 -- with an average cost of $358 each, pulling in $3,507,860 for One Show.

Ad Age estimated also that considering how many entries they received the year before (26,000), the organization got about $10 million in entry fees. One Show's response: We are a nonprofit, and agencies realize that this money goes towards supporting the industry.

BBDO was the hungriest hippo, accounting for more than 750 of the entries - spending a total of more than $250,000, according to the spreadsheet.

Communicating with Clients About Search

It's not the sexiest topic, but it's got to be addressed. Search marketing is the rising star of this century, but it's also one of the most poorly misunderstood online marketing tactics. Without naming names, or should I say taking names, clients sometimes just don't get what it is, what they want to do with it, and what they can (reasonably) expect from a search marketing campaign.

Along comes Josh at Search Engine Watch, to unravel the mystery of how to discuss search with clients.

Some of the highlights:

• Develop a unified search strategy. Don't compartmentalize your approach because you have a paid search team and an SEO team. Many clients and agencies still try to keep these strategies separate...Begin with meetings, status calls, and sharing keyword lists. This gets the conversation going and forces the groups to work together cohesively.
• Local search is important for everyone. Locations, phone numbers, services offered, hours of operations, and reviews add relevancy to your listing for brand searches and service-related searches.
• Social media strategies definitely can be used for SEO benefit, so don't be afraid to poke around your client's social media plans and ask to be included...As long as you're thinking about it from the context of search and not as a way to steal business, this is a valuable conversation to have, and your client will welcome it.

Get Mobile While It's Still Cheap, Ogilvy Says

Mobile marketing is going to become a mass channel in 2009, helped along by the recession -- and marketers would do good by getting into it while it's still new, advises Marc Fleishhacker, managing director for Ogilvy, New York.

The firm has published a little somethin' called "21 Ogilvy Solutions," suggestions for clients who want, no, NEED, to get the best performance of their marketing budgets. It's part of a larger help section in their Nov' 08-launched site called Ogilvy on Recession.

Why mobile, though?

The level of saturation in the marketplace in terms of handset distribution, with the younger generation who are ready adopters of mobile getting older every year, is driving up the food chain, said Fleishhacker. Some 57% of the U.S. population is texting on a regular basis and there is 100 to 110 year-on-year growth in the SMS channel, he added.

Mobile advertising now is a relatively cheap, so why not start using it as a channel, he said. Measurement and analytics tools are better now than they were in past recessions, so you'll get better feedback on your campaigns.

The Rainbow of Social Media Flavor

Sure, they're sweet, and colorful -- and who doesn't love that? (Though apparently that was the criteria for The Bachelor's first choice, which he later rejected, big time.)

 The Mars company scrapped its old website for a brand spankin' new social media site, which as Andy Beal describes it, is basically an overlay of search.twitter.com displaying results for the term “skittles," plus a few other navigational tools to point visitors to Skittles presence on YouTube and Facebook. It's a portal for social media freaks, who are also really into the little round candies. I would not be surprised to find a large number of people who fit that criteria.

Now the question is, will it work? And by work, I guess I mean increase sales, since after all Skittles is a company just like the rest of us (and the best of us?).

Sure, it provides them with a direct connection with their customers, and gives the brand a steady stream of authentic user-created content, but it's still an experiment -- so we won't know for a while what the actual results are. Many bloggers gave rave reviews, if for no other reason than to applaud them for keeping it fresh, putting social media content first, and getting people's attention.

I personally did not get past the first overlay, which asked me my birthday, and I assume it's not to put in a "happy birthday from skittles" email database. So, I went no further. Did you? What is your gut reaction to this gutsy move from a huge brand?

A Few Bright Spots Amidst the Darkness

Sick of hearing about layoffs, bankruptcies, and -- dare I say it -- cut ad budgets?

Here are few bright spots among all this doom and gloom:

• Interpublic Group (holding company for McCann Erickson, Universal McCann, Initiative and Lowe) posted  organic revenue growth of 6.2% last year, despite the downturn. That's $6.9 billion in annual revenue, but more importantly, $265.2 million in net income, up from $133.3m in 2007.
• Tech companies are going green. That is, using solar energy to power their massive, power-hungry server farms.
• Brands are figuring out how to do Facebook up right.
• Advertising is still sexy, politically-incorrect, and can be totally dangerous. My favorite: Mad-Men-style ad execs "doing nothing," from JWT Manila.

Track iPhone Visitors in Google Analytics

FYI, Google added the ability to see how many of your site visitors are coming from iPhones -- a metric that may not seem so key for short-sighted people, but could hold some serious weight in the future. Thinking of introducing an iPhone app for your brand? Might want to see if your customers or demographic are using them to access your site first.

Instructions from the Analytics blog: Click on the drop down menu at the top right of any report next to the text "Advanced Segments", and select "Visits from iPhones" in the list of default segments. (They suggest turning off "All Visits" when viewing the iPhone segment if the percentage is relatively small, for better visualization.)

Also, If you've got an AdWords campaign going, you can the new iPhone and high-end mobile targeting feature, Google said.

TV, FSIs Likely Culprits for Online Marketing Stalemate

Everybody's doin' it -- why aren't you?

Indeed, what is preventing marketing executives from moving more funding into the online space?

eMarketer has the answer, via an iMedia survey: Dependence on traditional measures, corporate culture, departmental inertia or fear, and a lack of metrics.

Here's what we have to say about these, in that order. Get over it, get over it, get over it, and whaaat? Online marketing does not provide "enough metrics" for you? Are you joking.

BT Debate Rages On

The behavioral advertising debate goes a little like this:

YES, do it! People want personalized ads. According to ChoiceStream, 41% of US Internet users pay more attention to advertising that was personalized. Some 39% said they were more willing to click on such personalized ads.

Of course, nonsensical Belgians provide exceptions to this rule. Hans recently asked me, shocked, how does Yahoo know that I want a cheap flight home to Europe? Are they reading my mail? And web pages? That's unacceptable. And I said, well, don't you want one? I mean, would you rather they served you ads for breast enhancement surgery? Okay, Ana, bad example.

Here's the other side: NO, Don't. People - like Hans - can be seriously uncomfortable with website policies that allow behavioral targeting. 57% of respondents in a TNS Global and TRUSTe poll said they were worried about advertisers using their browsing history to serve them relevant ads.

So whatcha gonna do?

Marketers Abandon Sinking Ship, Jump Aboard Online Vessel

While American journalists are racking their brains for new ways of saying "recession" -- "tight" or "shrinking" economy, the "downturn," and my favorite, "tough economic climate" -- analysts are trying to find new ways to tell the advertising industry of the effects of the, um, recession.

"There has been a yearly shift in marketing budgets," write some. "A moderate slowdown in ad spend." "Downgraded long-term projections."

Sometimes, they just tell it to us straight: Ad spend down 1.7% in first nine months of 2008. Thanks, TNS.

In case all that honesty starts making us feel bad about 2009 and start collecting funds for Hawaiian vacations for disenfranchised CDs, all we have to is check out eMarketer charts on online ad spend. Yep, still lookin' good. I don't care if it's not 30% anymore. Fifteen, sixteen percent still smacks of growth and and good old fashioned revenue.

Granted, big groups like WPP's GroupM, Enders Analysis, and E-Consultancy, all of which say they'll be happy if they end the year with a 10% growth from 2008.

But as Forrester's Nate Elliot told ClickZ: "Online will be hurt, just with all channels during a recession, but the fact is that online is in a better position than offline." Indeed it is.

Study: User-Generated Content Popular But Doesn't Make Money

By 2013, 155 million of US Internet users will consume some form of user-created content, up from 116 million in 2008 -- and the number of user-generated content creators will grow by similar proportions, reaching 115 million in 2013, up from 83 million in 2008. according to eMarketer.

And everyone loves it. I mean, it's cheap, it drives traffic and engagement, and it can be darn fun to play with. Like putty. This of course assumes that you don't look too deeply into it and try to analyze the psychological identity of the creator, that is, the American public -- which I don't recommend doing, ever.

But not everyone, apparently. Advertisers, fearing its "inherently unpredictable" nature, tend to steer clear of it, which puts a lot of pressure on site publishers and social media channels to give them safe havens. But do those really exist? How do you juggle "true" UGC with the need to moderate for quality and relevance?

The Rules of Email -- Starting With "Be Human"

Despite what many people might think - and have demonstrated - email is still sacred. And spammers who masquerade as real, honest-to-god people, are annoying. Very annoying.

Josh Bernoff on Groundswell picks out three examples of email marketing/PR that fit into this category. All three treated him like a target, not a human. "Influencers and journalists are human, too," he writes. "We get mad at this stuff. You want us to like your products, so why do you behave like this?" 

(See one he likes - for its ingenuity and personal nature.)

Probably the best advice on how to write an email are the tips from Seth Godin. (They're not designed for email marketers and do in fact include never sending mass emails.)

Some of my faves:

• Don't lie in your subject line, and don't be cute. You're not clever enough to be cute. Just be honest.
• Be short. The purpose of an email is not to sell the person on anything other than writing back. If you don't have a personal, interesting way to start a conversation, don't write.
• Don't mark your email urgent. Urgent to you is not urgent to me.
• Just because you have someone's email address doesn't mean you have the right to email them.

Obama Administration Inherits a White 'House of Old Technology'

It was bad enough leaving his pleasant Hyde Park digs and burying his Blackberry, but President Obama had a whole lot more to deal with when he entered his new home this week.

He and his staff entered a White House steeped in history - but not so much with technology, TechCrunch writes.

Upon entering their new offices, staff found that many phone lines had been disconnected and the internal ones that did "work" gave nothing but busy signals. Software on PCs had not been updated in years; Mac-users were forced to use Windows systems; few people were given laptops.

“It's kind of like going from an Xbox to an Atari,” noted Obama spokesman Bill Burton.

More importantly for many staffers, their favorite ways of communicating with each other (Twitter, Facebook, etc.) were suddenly silenced, as government regulations clamped down on these methods. (For the other side, read the article from FOXNews where the out-going Bush admin disputes the Dark Age accusation.)

The only surviving "new" technology approved by the White House counsel - and temporarily at that - is the use of gmail accounts for the press office. I guess all that data now "belongs" to Google - have fun, guys.

WordPress, Typepad, Blogsmith Rule Blog CMS Roost

Wordpress is the blogging platform of choice the Technorati's Top 100, blog - powering 27 out of the 100, reports Royal Pingdom. Check it out:

Just 8% of these top blogs use a custom-made blog platform, which either means they're not throwing a lot of funds at their CMS, or more positively, that third-party services are doing a darn good job at providing what they need.

Note the distinction, however, between a blogging service (e.g., Typepad, Wordpress.com, Blogger) where they handle the software and host for you, and a blogging platform like regular WordPress, Movable Type, etc. where you set up and host the platform yourself.

Interesting tidbit: Blogsmith, which is owned by AOL, beats out (in my opinion) better-known services like Typepad and Blogger, mostly because it is used by Weblogs, Inc. for their supercool niche sites. Second only to Gawker, our favorite sinking ship.

Politicians + Online Video = A Match Made in Hell?

When I saw this headline - "See Dmitry Run, Ski, and Video Blog," I got all excited, thinking that it was going to be the famous phone messsage Dmitri, which if you are in the dating game and haven't heard of him, you are truly missing out. But the actual news is about Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who apparently is a very cool video blogger - even on skiis.

Video and social media has a "significant role" to play in connecting people and allowing them to engage with each other - and for the Russian Government it is a way of letting its citizens inside, letting them see Medvedev as a real person and of having a dialogue with him, writes Social Media Today.

Is that the role of online video with politics? Ever since Obama starting addressing the nation in weekly YouTube addresses, we've been wondering how politicans plan to use the medium. Congress just signed up with YouTube to have its own channels for Senators and Representatives, though so far the platform seems to be just another soapbox for them to promote agendas, and content has been less than popular, with view counts for any given video remaining in the low hundreds, MarketingVOX reports.

The British monarchy and Queen Rania of Jordan both use online video to communicate with their public, with the latter winning YouTube's first-ever Visionary Award last year.

However, given the relatively one-way nature of video, for politics, we're thinking social networks may be the way to go. The kind of levels of engagement and reach that political leaders can get from a place like Facebook (made obvious during the election) still far outweigh the positives of a straight-laced video.

Ogilvy Does Your Social Media RSS For You

What started as an internal tool to help Ogilvy listen to web conversations about themselves or their campaigns is now public, for any dear marketer who can type TheDailyInfluence.com.

It's a "social media RSS dashboard," Ogilvy said - built on NetVibes, the RSS aggregator akin to iGoogle that many people already use to create customized feeds. And unlike Radian6, another social media listening post, it's totally free.

For that reason, and because it comes with pre-selected feeds from popular social media and technology sites, it's pretty perfect for someone marketing a tech or web product that wants to get a head start on monitoring blogs. (See review.)

More advanced "listeners," however, probably have their own system set up - or if they don't, will want to do it themselves, from scratch. Not to sound too old-fashioned, but there's a lot to be said about actually going through the process yourself.

And P.S. - Ogilvy laid off about 10% of its US workforce - or about 150-175 people (via Adweek). Some sources are saying as high as 300. WPP denied the cuts until, well, about two days ago. But this is just the beginning of thousands that will take place in WPP's agencies as clients slash ad budgets and shift dollars elsewhere, BNET writes.

Marketing Execs are 'So Over' Web 2.0

"If one more person says 'blog' or 'social networking' to me, I'm gonna puke," said the haggard marketing exec. Twice as many marketers said they are "sick" of hearing about Web 2.0 than last year, according to an Anderson Analytics survey for the Marketing Executives Networking Group (MENG).

But they admit they don’t know much about it. Some 67% of executive marketers consider themselves beginners when it comes to using social media for marketing purposes, according to a social media marketing study.

Global warming and green marketing are also way less popular this year, as marketers push aside newfangled ideas and go back to basics - putting more focus on the good ol' boys, like research & insights, and satisfying and retaining customers.

After that, marketing ROI, brand loyalty, and segmentation are considered important, marking a serious move back to the core principles of marketing, writes MarketingCharts.

Ding, Dong DRM is Dead and ...the crummy songs for 69 cents

Finally, dread iTunes DRM dies a sorry ugly death .

Now that iTunes has gotten rid of the DRM on its songs, we think some scoflaws will stop downloading illegally on peer-to-peer.  For many, it wasn't the 99 cents that bugged them, it was the digital rights management Apple had to plugged in that made the whole file potentially useless.

This whole thing hurt the record companies and consumers way more than it ever hurt Apple. 

Oh yeah, that's why they call them the record companies.

How a Rumor Turns into a Report: The $99 iPhone @ Wal-Mart

Web rumor becomes widely reported "truth" - I'm sure it's happened many times before, but VentureBeat did a good job of peeling back the layers on the latest example: the $99 Wal-Mart iPhone.

Here's how it began: a blog called Boy Genius Report got a tip in early December that the iPhone would be sold at Wal-Mart before the end of the year, and that the price might be $99 for a 4GB version, which is less capacity than Apple's current options.

Other blogs picked up the rumor, and some - oops! - forgot to mention that it was just a tip: a rumor, unconfirmed by any sort of trustworthy figure from either Apple or Wal-Mart. Still, blogs will be blogs, and reporting on rumors is just part of the fun. The real gaff came when "mainstream media" (first, the San Jose Mercury News, but then Bloomberg, Reuters, NYT, Yahoo News and other fun pals) started telling people it was true.

How did that happen? Well the Mercury News said that department manager of the cell phone department at a random Walmart told them she heard from an AT&T representative that her store would in fact be getting a 4GB version two days before Christmas. See where it starts getting sketchy? Like a game of telephone...

And Apple analysts jumped in on the rumor, eager to brag about their knowledge of Apple's business model. “A $99, Apple-branded cell phone is inevitable,” said a Kaufman Brothers analyst. Yes, inevitable. Except it's not, apparently. Wal-Mart shoppers will pay a whole $2 less for the same old models. Oh wait, except not really - it's cheaper at Best Buy.

Even on Dec. 9, when blogs started telling people that the rumor was not true, mainstream media was still insisting it was.

The bright side to this whole ordeal? (Besides mainstream media feeling a small blush in its cheeks for being too literal and then falling a step behind news blogs, of course.) There won't be any stampedes at Wal-Mart on the day of the iPhone's big debut.

Tracking Returns on Blog Outreach: A Lesson in Futility?

A comment from "Social Media for the Masses" (Adotas):

It’s great to see bloggers (like yourself) qualify the effects of social media on the marketing process. I would love to see some journalists document real quantifiable measurements of the return on investment in social media optimization. That evidence would be truly convincing when selling the service to clients.

Yes, when? The "four equally valuable" parts to achieving ROI on investment from blog outreach efforts: consumer generated content, third party validation, social media, and search results. Tracking search results? Easy cheesy. Finding UGC and re-using it for marketing purposes or to drive more traffic? Again, not a problem.

But using the bloggers’ validation (i.e., their unique content discussing the brand) to spread word across social media outlets and platforms is not only tricky to do but seems, to me, pretty impossible to track. The best part about so-called influencers is that they move in mysterious ways. And the ones they apparently influence are even more confusing to keep track of. So how do you measure the effect of this tactic?

Other than asking bloggers for their own metrics, finding overlap in your audience, or conducting some sort of survey, I don't see a way. That's the thing about word-of-mouth: It runs fast as hell, but not in one direction - so good luck trying to figure out where it came from or where it's going.

2009 Ad Spend to Fall 10%, but Web's Still a Winner

The economy is sucky, that's for sure. And domestic ad spend is projected to go down 10% next year, according to Barclays Capital - which gave a more moderate estimate of 5.5% just two months ago. A drop in local ad spend (12.2%) is supposed to lead the decline, writes All Things Digital.

But internet ad spend will still be splashing in the deep end of the ad pool: spending in the sector is expected to go up 6.1%, Barclays said. Digital experts at the IPG Emerging Media Lab agreed - see Mediapost's coverage for ideas on how tight-wadded marketers seeking accountability are going to fuel online growth.

Keep in mind, though, that internet advertising (display, search, lead generation, etc.) should account for just 10% of all ad spending next year.

Still, by 2010, spending in this minority segment will be up 12%...and who knows where the rest will be?

"Trusted" Information Sources

Via Groundswell's 2008 survey of 5,000 people:

Direct, Digital a Wise Choice for Struggling Big 3 Automakers

Hey, guess what - the automobile industry isn't doing so hot. I never used to pay much attention to it, but ever since I traded in* my 2005 fake-Vespa scooter for an '87 BMW coupe I started realizing how important a car can be to a person's - okay, an American's - life. It takes you places, and not in the figurative sense, which on a daily basis is way more important than those other things that bring you to your Dreams, you know?

But now the all-powerful American car industry is no longer so big and beefy. In November, General Motors' total vehicle sales dropped 41%, Chrysler's were down 47.1% and Ford's were down 30.5%, according to Motor Intelligence. Year-to-date, the declines are 21.9%, 27.7% and 19.5%, respectively.

Eating humble pie, the Big Three are going down on their knees to ask Congress for $34 billion in financial assistance to keep them from going bankrupt. Faced with the prospect of seeing one or all of them go belly up, many advertising and marketing firms whose business is based on the auto industry is - to be blunt - freaking out, man.

Chrysler's agency, Omnicom BBDO, just cut 145 jobs to account for loss of client activity; Mullen Agency, which has an office in Detroit, laid off 5% of its work force; and Campbell-Ewald, in Warren, MI, also let some people go, reports DM News.

But direct marketers - and digital marketers - are having a field day. “Throughout this year, we've been look­ing at shifting our advertising efforts to include online, because digital is a little bit more direct, and we can measure it more,” revealed Carrie McElwee, a Chrysler spokesperson.

Once again, the tables turn.

BT Dubs, we always heart Honda, and here's why.

*Who am I kidding? I would never trade in Scooter Libby. She's still alive and well, bravely exploring the streets of Oakland, CA.